US private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November, defying market expectations, according to data released Thursday by the ADP Research Institute.
Economists had forecast a gain of 5,000 jobs for the month, following an upwardly revised increase of 47,000 in October.
ADP said job creation has been essentially flat throughout the second half of 2025, with pay growth continuing to slow. Hiring in November was especially weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction.
“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. “And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.”
Education and health services posted the strongest growth, adding 33,000 jobs, followed by leisure and hospitality with 13,000. Natural resources and mining added 8,000 positions, while trade, transportation, and utilities saw a modest gain of 1,000.
Professional and business services recorded the largest losses at 26,000 jobs, followed by information services with 20,000 and manufacturing with an 18,000 decline.
The data comes as the Federal Reserve prepares for its Dec. 9–10 policy meeting. Recent months have shown signs of a cooling labor market, while inflation has generally met or come in below expectations.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors now assign more than an 89% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting. The policy rate currently stands at a target range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent.
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