DUMAGUETE CITY – The move to change the frequency of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) expectation surveys will start this year, initially with the business expectation survey (BES) to be held on the first quarter.
To date, both the BES and the consumer expectation survey (CES) are conducted on a quarterly basis.
BSP Deputy Gov. Zeno Ronald Abenoja, during a seminar for journalists here Sunday, said they aim for the monthly conduct of the BES starting in the latter part of the first quarter this year and the CES in the second half.
He said this aims to give monetary officials a greater grasp on business and consumer sentiments, which is among the drivers of the domestic output.
Among others, the BES wants to know the outlook of businesses for the current quarter, the next quarter, and the next 12 months in terms of inflation, peso-US dollar movement, and expansion plans, among others.
The CES, in turn, asks survey participants for their outlook on their purchases on consumer durables, vehicles, and real estate properties, among others, as well as income sources.
Abenoja said a lot of the information they get are traditional ones that are backward looking, thus the need to update.
“Quarterly survey, again, are very useful, they’re fast moving developments and we want policy to be informed of these shifts, we want to monitor them more closely so it might be helpful to do this monthly survey,” he said.
“There’s a way to manage such large surveys so we can get relevant information, but still have the cost and the logistics side of that survey manageable and produce more timely information. So, BES and CES because they’re more forward-looking type of surveys that could complement some of the backward-looking traditional information that we have,” he said.
Abenoja also noted their shift toward now-casting, instead of forecasting or projecting ahead, to further enhance their ability to read domestic economy’s near-term output.
The BSP is also considering the use of other methodologies to get more information on investments, the financial system, the logistics industry and traffic, among others.
“These are some of the things that we hope can help us drive on a Sunday morning so that we will have a better journey towards our goal, we’ll have a better understanding of the economy, the strength of our instruments, and also the state of the policy environment where we operate as a monetary policy,” he added, using a Sunday road trip analysis to explain the need to enhance how the BSP gathers economic information.
PNA PHOTO