The World Trade Organization (WTO) has adjusted upwards its 2025 global trade growth forecast to 2.4 percent from the 0.9 percent announced last August.
However, the WTO still warned of slowing growth for 2026 based on its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released October 7, 2025, making a downward forecast to 0.5 percent.
“Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on artificial intelligence (AI)-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world,” it said.
While the upward adjustment in global trade growth to 2.4 percent looks like good news, it is below the 2024 level of 2.8 percent.
Also, the global trade forecast for 2026 was revised downward to 0.5 percent from 1.8 percent, indicating the effect of tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump will be felt next year at varying levels by the trading partners of the US.0
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the mitigating factors to current trade disruptions were tempered by countries’ measured response to tariff changes, growth of artificial intelligence (AI), and increased trade.
“Yet complacency is not an option. Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere,” Okonjo-Iweala said.
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